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Fire and Ice

October 2, 2007

As the northern sun descends, cold is returning to the polar regions and ice is beginning to build again over the Arctic Ocean. Two thousand miles to the south, winter's snap has returned to the air over the northern Rockies, signaling an end to another hell-roaring fire season.

Fire and ice. More of the former and less of the latter. Time to take stock of our changing climate.

This year, the Arctic Ocean's ice cover fell to a level not seen in living memory. Open water at the top of the world, the dream of sailing ship mariners seeking a northern passage to Asia, may be a summertime reality in the not-too-distant future.

Easier shipping will be a plus in a warmer world, but darker water holding in heat and exacerbating the warming trend will be a serious minus. For northern communities, it will be a wrenching adjustment. For polar bears and other northern wildlife, it will be worse.

Scientists make it clear that natural factors -- shifting wind patterns and unusually sunny skies during the 24-hour daylight of high summer -- likely played a role in the ice retreat this year. Nevertheless, they add, it's getting harder to avoid the strong possibility that global warming linked to human activities is resetting the Arctic, which will have significant implications for the climate south of the Arctic Circle.

Such as the northern Rockies, the epicenter of the wildland fire season in 2007. More than 8 million acres caught fire this summer nationally, 1 million in Montana, Idaho, and North Dakota.

Conditions in the high country were extreme. At the end of August, the typical moisture in Montana forests is about 16 to 17 percent. This year, moisture had dwindled to slightly more than one-third that level -- at the beginning of July. Thanks to a combustible mix of heat, wind, and crackling dry fuels, fires exploded beyond the ability of hand crews, hot shots, and other wildfire professionals to stop them.

If hotter, drier conditions become the norm as a result of climate change, fire bosses will have to make harder choices. They must protect the men and women under their command. Some fires will be too dangerous, too remote, or both to fight, and will be left to burn. People who build dream homes in the woods expecting big-city levels of fire protection will have to accept higher risks.

Fire and ice. The consequences of our energy choices are coming home.